Sitting on the Dock of the Bayes
Applying Bayesian Methods to Modern Real Estate Appraisal
This article introduces Bayesian inference as a formal framework for incorporating professional judgment and uncertainty into real estate valuation, moving beyond deterministic point estimates toward probability-based conclusions. Through practical examples, it demonstrates how Bayesian updating can improve reconciliation, defensibility, and communication of risk in both residential and commercial appraisal assignments.
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