When the Map Arrives Before the Market
This article examines the U.S. Census Bureau's new Local Air Conditioning Estimates (LACE) and argues that an air-conditioning figure quietly functions as a proxy for housing age, income, infrastructure, and heat vulnerability, making it a compact screening signal for neighborhood risk. Drawing on the released tract-level data, it documents a counterintuitive geography in which the highest no-cooling rates concentrate along the temperate Pacific Coast and northern tier rather than the saturated South, with just ten Pacific counties holding nearly a third of the national no-AC population. It shows why cooling capacity is a neighborhood rather than county characteristic, and how a single heat event can convert that absence from invisible to decisive almost overnight. Ultimately, it argues that heat risk is following flood risk's path from environmental curiosity to priced financial variable, with one decisive difference: the data layer has arrived ahead of the market machinery that might one day price it.
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